According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), in early June, the daily average crude steel output from CISA's members was about 2.25 million tons, increasing by 3.2% from late May and slightly growing by 0.77% from the same period a year ago. In late May, the Chinese government introduced new policies to differentiate the production volume of steel companies based on environmental protection standards. Therefore, crude steel production will be restricted, but companies with an "A" rating for environmental protection will be allowed to fully utilize their production capacities. As a result, member companies of CISA may see an increase in production.
Despite some steel companies halting production due to declining profits, overall crude steel production in China has not decreased. Reduced output from small and medium-sized enterprises is being offset by increased production from larger firms.
Several factors are expected to drive future steel demand, including accelerated issuance of special bonds by local governments, a rebound in the real estate market driven by lower mortgage rates, and large-scale equipment upgrades. However, the impending rainy season and summer are likely to limit significant short-term demand increases. Consequently, while domestic demand may not recover as swiftly as supply, steel exports are expected to remain high.