As June begins, China’s rebar market is entering its traditional off-peak seasonal demand, but historical price patterns varied, with sharp increases in June and July of 2021 and 2023, and notable declines during the same period in 2022 and 2024.

This year 2025, so far, fiscal stimulus has accelerated, with local governments issuing CNY1.5732 trillion in special bonds, 35.7% of the annual target, supporting infrastructure investment, which rose 5.8% year on year from January to April, according to official data. Though slower than the 10% average of recent years, this growth continues to stabilize rebar demand.

Meanwhile, the real estate sector remains weak. The newly started construction area fell 23.8% in the first four months, with April hitting a new low since 2020, significantly lowering short-term demand expectations.

On the supply side, rebar output remains high as steelmakers increase production despite lower profits. Inventory drawdowns are slowing, with pressure expected to rise. Rebar futures may follow a pattern of initial decline followed by a rebound in June.